For nearly two decades, they were the fiercest of rivals, battling each other in some of the greatest matches the sport has ever seen. Yet now, as Novak Djokovic chases an unprecedented 25th Grand Slam title at the 2025 US Open, his longtime adversary Rafael Nadal has offered a candid and sobering assessment of the Serbian’s chances.

Speaking ahead of the final major of the year, Nadal admitted that while Djokovic remains one of the toughest competitors in tennis history, at 38 years old he may require a stroke of fortune to overcome his younger rivals and reclaim the trophy he last lifted in 2023.

“Looking at his last matches against Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, I think Novak may need some help to win that 25th Grand Slam,” Nadal said. “To beat Sinner, then Alcaraz, and maybe another tough opponent before that — it’s difficult for anyone, even Novak. He doesn’t need much, but maybe he needs a little help from the draw, from the other guys.”

The Long Pursuit of No. 25

Djokovic’s remarkable career has already seen him surpass Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the Grand Slam race, securing 24 major titles. His last came at the US Open in 2023, when he equalled Margaret Court’s all-time record across men’s and women’s tennis.

Since then, however, the Grand Slam stage has belonged almost exclusively to a new generation. Between them, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have claimed the last seven majors, shutting Djokovic out despite his continued presence in the latter stages.

In 2025 alone, the Serbian has reached the semi-finals of all three Grand Slams, a testament to his enduring quality. Yet cracks have appeared in his physical resilience. He was forced to withdraw from the Australian Open semi-final against Alexander Zverev with injury, and at Wimbledon he was hampered by fitness issues in his loss to Sinner.

For Nadal, who knows better than most the physical demands of the sport at the highest level, this is the key challenge for Djokovic.

Nadal’s Honest Appraisal

Despite their long and often fiery rivalry, Nadal has always respected Djokovic’s relentless pursuit of greatness. Now, from the perspective of a retired champion and keen observer, the Spaniard’s analysis carries extra weight.

“I would not count him out yet,” Nadal continued. “He is Novak Djokovic, and I thought he had a chance to win another Grand Slam in 2025. Wimbledon looked like maybe his best chance. But to beat Sinner on hard courts, where he is becoming maybe one of the best players of all time, that is very difficult. Still, you can never write Novak off.”

According to Nadal, the problem is not Djokovic’s level in isolation — he can still compete with anyone. The issue lies in the cumulative toll of a two-week tournament played over best-of-five sets.

“The big problem is that you have to beat four or five great players in a row,” Nadal explained. “At his age, to recover and be at your best match after match is very tough. He can still do it, but it’s getting harder.”

The New Order

Nadal’s comments reflect the broader shift taking place in men’s tennis. With Federer retired, Nadal himself having stepped away, and Djokovic approaching the twilight of his career, the spotlight has firmly shifted onto the likes of Sinner and Alcaraz.

Both players have spoken openly about their rivalry, each pushing the other to new heights. Sinner, who captured his first major at the 2024 US Open, has emerged as the man to beat on hard courts. Alcaraz, meanwhile, continues to dazzle with his athleticism and fearless style, adding more titles to his already impressive collection.

For Djokovic, these two represent the immovable objects standing between him and No. 25. As Nadal pointed out, needing to defeat both in the same fortnight is a daunting task.

Djokovic’s Determination

Despite the questions and doubts, Djokovic remains as determined as ever. He has structured his season almost entirely around the Grand Slams, sacrificing smaller tournaments to ensure he is fresh for the sport’s biggest stages.

This year, he opens his US Open campaign against world No. 48 Learner Tien, a talented young American expected to test the veteran in his first match since Wimbledon. While Djokovic has looked sharp in practice, concerns linger about his physical durability after more than a month away from competitive play.

Asked about those concerns earlier this week, Djokovic brushed them aside. “I’ve been through this before,” he said. “The important thing is to take it match by match. The motivation is there. The hunger is there.”

Nadal’s Respect

What struck many about Nadal’s comments was the tone of respect. For years, their rivalry defined men’s tennis, producing classics from Roland Garros to Melbourne, from Wimbledon to New York. The Spaniard’s acknowledgment that Djokovic is still a contender — albeit one who may need a little help — reflects the mutual admiration that has replaced the cutthroat competition of their primes.

“Novak has been one of the greatest competitors I’ve ever faced,” Nadal said. “We pushed each other to limits that maybe we didn’t think were possible. Now, at this stage, I just respect what he continues to do. It’s not easy to still be fighting at this level.”

Final Thoughts

As the 2025 US Open gets underway, the stage is set for another fascinating fortnight. Sinner and Alcaraz will arrive as favourites, the new standard-bearers of the game. Yet looming over the draw is Djokovic, the last of the “Big Three,” still defiant, still chasing history.

Whether Nadal is right — that he will need a little luck to claim his 25th Grand Slam — remains to be seen. But as the Spaniard himself admitted, writing off Djokovic has always been a mistake.

One thing is certain: if Djokovic does manage to lift the trophy in New York once again, it will go down as one of the greatest triumphs of his career, a final statement of defiance from a man who has never accepted limits.

As Nadal put it simply: “You can never write Novak off. Not now, not ever.”