Vice President JD Vance is among the leading candidates to win the 2028 presidential race and could face off against Democrats like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, according to betting markets.

Newsweek reached out to their teams for comment via email.

Why It Matters

The 2028 presidential race is years away, but candidates are already making moves like traveling to early-voting South Carolina to build support among primary voters or fundraising for potential campaigns ahead of what is likely to be a competitive race.

Betting markets like Polymarket accurately predicted President Donald Trump as the winner of the 2024 election over former Vice President Kamala Harris last November.

Betting Odds for 2028 Election: What to Know

Polymarket kicked off its betting odds in July for the 2028 presidential race, and traders have already bet nearly $4 million on various candidates.

Currently, Vance, who serves as Trump’s second-in-command, is the leading candidate in the betting odds with a 28 percent chance of winning the election.

Three leading Democrats follow. Newsom has a 15 percent chance of winning, Ocasio-Cortez has a nine percent chance and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has an eight percent chance of becoming the next president.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Republican, follows at seven percent while Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, is next at a five percent chance of winning.

Kamala Harris Betting Odds Stall After Announcement

Harris’ chances of winning the presidential race stalled following her announcement that she is not running for governor in California, which fueled speculation that she will run for president.

Prior to that announcement, she had about a 2.3 percent chance of winning the presidency, and her announcement caused her chances of winning to rise to 3.7 percent on Wednesday. By Friday morning, however, her chances had dropped back down to 3.3 percent.

That’s roughly on par with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, both Democrats, as well as Trump, who is Constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term, and Elon Musk, who cannot run for president because he was not born in the United States.

Her odds also slightly increased in the U.K. based bookmaker William Hill’s market to 3.8 percent from 2 percent.

Primary Election Odds in Kalshi Betting Market

Rival betting market Kalshi also offered odds for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in 2028.

On the Democratic side, Newsom is the frontrunner with 20 percent, followed by Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite among progressives, at 15 percent and Buttigieg at 10 percent. Maryland Governor Wes Moore follows at six percent. Harris, Shapiro, Beshear and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff each have a five percent chance.

Traders view Vance as more of a favorite on the Republican side with a 54 percent chance. Rubio has a nine percent chance, and Trump has a six percent chance of winning the primary. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard each have a five percent chance of winning.

Presidential Race 2028: What Polls Say About Primaries, General Election

While Harris’ odds remain low, she does remain a polling frontrunner to win the party’s nomination if she ends up running.

A McLaughlin poll released in early July showed that Harris had support from 25 percent of respondents. Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has not indicated she plans to run, each received 9 percent support, while Buttigieg received 8 percent. That poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from July 9 to July 14.

However, the latest AtlasIntel poll showed Buttigieg leading with 27 percent support. Ocasio-Cortez followed with 19 percent, while 16 percent backed Newsom. In that poll, only 14 percent of respondents picked Harris. It surveyed 1,935 adults from July 13 to July 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Across the aisle, Republicans seem to be rallying early behind Vance. The McLaughlin showed Vance with 31 percent, followed by Donald Trump Jr. at 19 percent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at eight percent and Rubio at four percent.

The AtlasIntel survey found Vance at 58 percent, DeSantis at 13 percent, Rubio at 10 percent and Trump Jr. at five percent.

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,400 registered voters from July 21 to July 22, 2025, showed Vance with an early lead over leading Democratic candidates.

He led Buttigieg by one point (44 percent to 43 percent), Newsom by three points (45 percent to 42 percent) and Ocasio-Cortez by three points (44 percent to 41 percent), according to the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

What People Are Saying

William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps previously told Newsweek: “With Kamala Harris effectively ruling herself out of the running to become the next Governor of California, we think she could have her eyes on the 2028 presidential election.”

The organization Republicans against Trump wrote on a July 30 post to X: “Newsom tops Polymarket’s 2028 Dem odds at 21%, with AOC at 16%. Honestly, popular governors like Beshear or Shapiro would be stronger picks to win over moderates and Never Trumpers.”

Donald Trump Jr. wrote to X on July 22: “LOL Trump has equal odds as Kamala for 2028. It’s just as likely there will be a constitutional amendment to add a third term for Trump as it is for Kamala to win a national election after being her party’s nominee. Hilarious!”

What Happens Next

Typically, candidates don’t make their presidential announcements until after the midterms, which are set to be held on November 3, 2026. Candidates are likely to spend the coming years laying the groundwork for their future runs.